From the New Statesman:
Enough of the Scottish subsidy myth
Scotland pays its way in the Union - it's time the London commentariat acknowledged that.
The notion that Scottish public services are subsidised by English taxpayers has become so commonplace in UK politics that not even David Dimbleby, the supposedly neutral presenter of BBC Question Time, thinks twice about repeating it. During an exchange on a recent show with Liberal Democrat Jo Swinson about her decision to vote as a Scottish MP to impose tuition fees on English students, Dimbleby said, "You voted for England to have fees, whereas Scotland, as we know, with the amount of money that comes from England, doesn't need to have them."
This view is based on the discrepancy between levels of public spending per head of the population in Scotland and England. According to the Treasury's latest Public Expenditure Statistics, Scots gets an average of £10,212 spent on them every year by the UK government, compared with around £8,588 -- £1,624 less -- for people in England.
In line with narrative of the Scottish welfare subsidy, the extra cash allows Scotland to provide its students with free higher education, its elderly with free personal care and concessionary travel, and its sick with free prescription medication, while their English equivalents are forced to go without.
This so-called "Union dividend" is also used by many London-based journalists and politicians -- many of whom would describe themselves as social democrats -- who argue that current levels of public expenditure in Scotland would be unsustainable were it to break away and become an independent country.
Yet, if the London commentariat took the time to examine the figures a little more closely, they would discover what a large number people north of the border already know: not only does Scotland more than pay its way in the Union, but its overall fiscal position would actually be stronger as a fully sovereign nation.
Let's tackle the subsidy charge first. Scots represent 8.4 per cent of the UK's total population, but they generate 9.4 per cent of its annual revenues in tax -- equivalent to £1,000 extra per person. The remaining £624 is easily accounted for by decades of UK government under-spending in Scotland on defence and on other items which are not routinely broken down by region, such as foreign office services.
Second, there's the claim that Scotland's "bloated" welfare state could not be sustained outside the Union. This is nonsense. Including its per capita share of revenues from North Sea oil and gas production, Scotland's public expenditure probably does not exceed the OECD average and is almost certainly lower than that of the Scandinavian social democracies. The fact that the Treasury cynically refuses to class those revenues as part of Scotland's overall annual economic output inflates the level of public sector expenditure as a proportion of GDP relative to that of the private sector.
Finally, one of the most common -- and least well-considered -- claims made by supporters of the Union is that the 2008 global financial meltdown shattered the economic case for independence. How, they argue, would the economy of tiny, independent Scotland have been able to cope with the burden of debt needed to rescue its financial sector from collapse? It wouldn't, of course, but according to George Walker, professor of financial regulation and policy at the University of Glasgow, Scotland would only have had to take on a proportion of the total cost of the bail-out based on the subsidiaries and business operations of HBOS and RBS in Scotland. This would probably amount to no more than 5 per cent.
For the sake of argument, nationalists might also wish to note that Scotland's 2009 - 2010 deficit was, at 6.8 per cent of GDP, a full 3 per cent lower than England's, and that the likely defence expenditure of an independent Scotland would, at around $1.8bn per year in line with Nordic average, be roughly £1bn less than what the UK currently spends on its behalf.
But why should Unionists let the economic facts ruin the image they have built up of Scotland as a nation of selfish, indulged welfare "mendicants"?The subsidy myth is too politically useful to be simply abandoned. Of course, if they ever do come to terms with the reality that Scotland could survive on its own - and even prosper - it will probably be too late anyway.
This view is based on the discrepancy between levels of public spending per head of the population in Scotland and England. According to the Treasury's latest Public Expenditure Statistics, Scots gets an average of £10,212 spent on them every year by the UK government, compared with around £8,588 -- £1,624 less -- for people in England.
In line with narrative of the Scottish welfare subsidy, the extra cash allows Scotland to provide its students with free higher education, its elderly with free personal care and concessionary travel, and its sick with free prescription medication, while their English equivalents are forced to go without.
This so-called "Union dividend" is also used by many London-based journalists and politicians -- many of whom would describe themselves as social democrats -- who argue that current levels of public expenditure in Scotland would be unsustainable were it to break away and become an independent country.
Yet, if the London commentariat took the time to examine the figures a little more closely, they would discover what a large number people north of the border already know: not only does Scotland more than pay its way in the Union, but its overall fiscal position would actually be stronger as a fully sovereign nation.
Let's tackle the subsidy charge first. Scots represent 8.4 per cent of the UK's total population, but they generate 9.4 per cent of its annual revenues in tax -- equivalent to £1,000 extra per person. The remaining £624 is easily accounted for by decades of UK government under-spending in Scotland on defence and on other items which are not routinely broken down by region, such as foreign office services.
Second, there's the claim that Scotland's "bloated" welfare state could not be sustained outside the Union. This is nonsense. Including its per capita share of revenues from North Sea oil and gas production, Scotland's public expenditure probably does not exceed the OECD average and is almost certainly lower than that of the Scandinavian social democracies. The fact that the Treasury cynically refuses to class those revenues as part of Scotland's overall annual economic output inflates the level of public sector expenditure as a proportion of GDP relative to that of the private sector.
Finally, one of the most common -- and least well-considered -- claims made by supporters of the Union is that the 2008 global financial meltdown shattered the economic case for independence. How, they argue, would the economy of tiny, independent Scotland have been able to cope with the burden of debt needed to rescue its financial sector from collapse? It wouldn't, of course, but according to George Walker, professor of financial regulation and policy at the University of Glasgow, Scotland would only have had to take on a proportion of the total cost of the bail-out based on the subsidiaries and business operations of HBOS and RBS in Scotland. This would probably amount to no more than 5 per cent.
For the sake of argument, nationalists might also wish to note that Scotland's 2009 - 2010 deficit was, at 6.8 per cent of GDP, a full 3 per cent lower than England's, and that the likely defence expenditure of an independent Scotland would, at around $1.8bn per year in line with Nordic average, be roughly £1bn less than what the UK currently spends on its behalf.
But why should Unionists let the economic facts ruin the image they have built up of Scotland as a nation of selfish, indulged welfare "mendicants"?The subsidy myth is too politically useful to be simply abandoned. Of course, if they ever do come to terms with the reality that Scotland could survive on its own - and even prosper - it will probably be too late anyway.
6 comments:
And in other news today, the SNP had proof positive that the moon is in fact made of green cheese...Bears under no circumstances ever shit in the woods and the Arctic is beyond any doubt a hot and humid tropical paradise.
My point is, you can prove any point you wish if you selectively cherry pick data to support your point of view like oil priced at all time highs.
Do the same calculations using a (Let's be generous here) a 10 year average oil price of around $45 the figures aren't quite so compelling.
Now let's take into account all Scotlands resources and whisky industry.
Water, if only it ever rained in England, and we weren't a landlocked country with parched dustbowls where our lakes and rivers used to be.
Whisky, if only us English were capable of distilling alcohol.
Farming, if only the English could raise beef, pork and lamb and grow turnips, barley and oats.
Fishing, see Water..
Budvers, only time will tell, that is if the 'fearties' get off their fat arses and take an interest in their country. The point is that the Unionists and the Establishment will put out scare stories, like the one Harris put out on his blog about Salmons being Hitler. The Establishment own most of the papers and the media and they will not tell the truth as usual, that's why it's abnormal to see an English paper telling it's readers what the facts are. I think $45 over the last 10 years is far too low BTW.
The oil price average 2000 - 2010 is as follows.
Mean average - $58.9
Mode average - $26
Median average - $41
It all depends on how the average was worked out and the range was between $26 and $100. As you'd expect the usual price fell somewhere in the middle of the 2 extremes. I'll concede it might be a bit higher than $45, but for these purposes we're in the right sort of ballpark figure.
If we use a figure of $60, which is well within the parameters for our purposes. It's still half the present price of oil. When we add in currency fluctuations between the dollar/pound, figures for Scotland are way off base.
Budvers, I accept your apologies for your mistake. Seriously though, here are other reasons to take into account, the 'Arab' spring, the extra demand coming from the emerging economies of China, India and Brazil and the fact that oil supply is getting smaller and more expensive to mine all the time.
The thing with relying on oil revenues, is after 30 years, production peaked in 1999.
Production forecasts for 2020 are expected to be 30% of peak, and rapidly downhill from then on out.
Now I might just be a suspicious bastard, but ever get that feeling you're being shafted? If they give you independence and the oil, it *WILL* only be because the north sea is pretty much played out or it's not economic to extract the bit that's left.
Budvers, what you say about the North sea may or not may not be true. They have just opened up the first field discovered again, because they have discovered with new deep water extraction they have another 30% to exploit. There is also the west coast where I live which has been a mining area for years and is reputed to have oil. Rockall is another area which comes under Scottish jurisdiction, to say nothing about our share of the Falklands oil. The challenge is then going to be inventing batteries for cars to exploit the new electricity generation which I alluded to, which I am not at liberty to discuss at this point in time, although I am bursting to!
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