After almost 21 hours of politics, (with 5 hours sleep!), here is how I see the possibilities:
Tories do a deal with the Libdems-The SNP rail against Tory cuts, citing the feeble Labour forty of the Thatcher years and get in with an increased majority in 2011, leading to independence.
Tories go for minority Government- The SNP/Plaid vote will be extracted from them at a price. Again the SNP will win in 2011 and the English will be glad to see the back of us.
Labour and the Libdems form a coalition- The English will not stand for it and Scottish independence will be hastened down the road.
Anyone else see it differently?
42 comments:
Still got to get the gorgon out of the downing street bunker though. Might need a crowbar and lots of vaseline.
I'll give it a year and there will be another election whatever coalition emerges this time.
Meanwhile the pound sinks and we call in the IMF.
Hearse for Brown more like, someone should toss a bag full of grenades into the bunker.
This only works if you equate the SNP with Scotland , DL .
I see that as an affront to Scotland , its people and history .
SNP - grievance , contrived victimhood and kow-tow to Brussels .
British is best .
Boabs, I'll he take it a bit of shifting becuase Mandelesen will be encouraging him.
Oli, I equate the SNP with independence for my country and I don't see that as an affront to my country or it's people or it's history. I've been discussing over the last 24 hours with a mate of mine in Wishaw. In many ways he is at the opposite end of the spectrum to you. He is dyed in the wool Labour and is pally with Roy, Reid etc. Obviously he is also from Irish stock, his father's Irish and he's catholic. When I mention Independence to him I get the same arguements as I get from you, British is best, we couldn't do it on our own etc. When however I mention Ireland. Fuck me, he goes off his head. A completely different situation. They fought the British, we raped their women and their land etc etc etc. Well I say, the English did that to the Scots, that's different, I'm told. In actual fact it got too heated at one point when I was going to tell him if it was such a good place to fuck off there, when I pulled back. Different side of the argument but same opinions about independence as you.
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I hope that the Lib Dems do make a pact with the Tories... After clearing out the Tories from Scotland, the backlash of the cuts, coupled with the Lib Dems pact will see the Lib Dems being wiped of the map too!
2011 will then see a massive SNP majority, quickly followed by a referendum, and independence following quickly!
As for Labour, if the Lib Dems make a pact, then the SNP and Plaid can both push for support for referendums in return. England will be furious, as they already think they are giving us more money, and as you rightfully say, there would likely be Civil Disobedience down South, and independence will be quick!
I think 2010 is a defining year, as the Unbalanced Kingdom has reached breaking point, and Westminster are caught between a rock and a hard place!
[smiles]
Now the last permutation you have fogotten
The Liebour, Conmen and Lib Dumb wake up to the Constitional 'crisis', which I can't see personally as they are so out of touch with the electorate and Scotland in particular.
If they do, we could see 2-3 weeks of dithering then another election called in October. This election will likely see a massive backlash against Brown, as he would stay in number 10, and the Conservatives will easily break through the majority, with Lib Dems in 2nd, and will likely spell the end of labour as a Political force in the UK, for maybe as long as the Liberals, who have been out of favour for a century!
This would have affect as above with your first 2 notes!
But... we cannot discount the Tories considering to repeal the Scotland Act, as a defence.
Whatever happens in the next week or so, guys we gotta prepare ourselves to act!
I agree DeKaiser this has been my concern for a coule of weeks noe I just cant't beleive its happenning to script. Unbeleivable.
I agree DeKaiser this has been my concern for a coule of weeks noe I just cant't beleive its happenning to script. Unbeleivable.
We live in interesting times and it's up to each of us to do our bit to forward our position and realise our goals.
The next few months are going to be quite tense.
CD
Bogey I think the machine may be needed very shortly. Keep it well oiled and I'll keep myself in the same condition.
DieKaisers, I can't see any scenario that wouldn't work in Scotland's advantage, that is if you are of the opinion, as I am, that independence is the preferred option. Well only one. There is a new election and Labour get in with a large majority. But there is a nane and fuck all chance of that happening now, unless that useless twat Cameron fucks up.
Bogey, I appreciate your concerns but don't worry all will be alright.
Daisy, interesting times indeed!
I agree with you that the Irish Republican tendency within the Labour Party have a very muddled view of Nationalism , DL .
While they love to pretend that they are the great oppressed , done down by the evil Ascendency , they are acutely aware that they are , everywhere , a minority , whose presence in the country was occasioned and facilitated only by Scotland's membership of the British Empire .
Put bluntly , they hate Britain , but exist only because of Britain .
That's fine by me . I only wish they didn't hate this country .
I can't agree that Scotland has suffered some sort of occupation and oppression by England . That is just ahistorical rubbish .
Scotland and England formed Great Britain together because our king inherited their vacant throne . End of .
The only periods of Scottish history where you could say we lived under English occupation were in the 1290's , when Balliol was in exile , and (possibly) under Cromwell (after Dunbar). The second one wasn't regarded as too bad , though , as we were much better off under him than under our own kings immediately before and after .
PS. Braveheart wasn't real - as I'm sure you are aware .
Young Oligarch
Firstly, the Union was agreed in 1707, and ractified by the Act of the Union 1707.
Scotland's throne was not inherited! It merged with the English Throne by the Act of the Union:
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/corporate/history/SPTradition/treaty.htm
Secondly, Scotland has effectively became an occupied Nation after Westminster had both rejected the referendum for DDevolutioin in 1979, and furthermore persists to reject Scotland to conduct its own referendum to achieve Independence.
Westminster state "Independence is the business of Scotland", whilst at the same time have compiled a Legal case to argue that any referendum for Independence would be Illegal, as they argue Westminster has "Total Sovereignity over the Parliament of the UK". In addition to refusing to devolving Scotland's Constitution to Holyrood!
DL, spot on... there are only 2 chances to save the Union:
1. Cameron messes up the negotiations, and the electorate see Nick Clegg as the victim, with the next election showing a landslide for Labour
2. The electorate wake up and translate Cameron's campaign pitch as it is - and that is in essence radical cuts to the Public sector. Ironically, he is not hiding it, he has merely spun it in a way that the electorate think they will be the winners in a new Conservative Government! They have a huge shock if he does indeed take power.
Oh and DL, I am a NAT - Independence is in my blood :)
Well, you are all right about one thing - we down in South England, who are forced pay huge amounts of tax to keep the Scots and their gigantic public sector in the style to which they have become accustomed, are only too keen to support your quest for independence.
Viva the SNP! Go on, all of you, vote for independence! We in the South are all rooting for you to follow your national destiny (to bankruptcy).
Next year, we are also going to support a campaign amongst the turkeys to vote for Christmas.
And, BTW, the best of British luck to you in the bond markets, when you go a-borrowing to fund your lovely big state sector. They will probably allow you to borrow at no more than, say, 20% interest.
Have fun!
PS And please don't forget to take Gordon, Alastair, RBS, BOS etc etc with you when you leave.
anon..
We don't want the fuckers ta. It was England that voted them in. We voted for the SNP for our parliament. We only have 10% of the UK vote so couldn't vote out labour in England. It was England that wanted Bliar not us.
Meanwhile. The attack on the bunker is scheduled for dawn...
http://davidforward.com/
Well, I am not sure I agree with you about the voting. Without Scottish Labour MPs, we in England would have got rid of Bliar in 2005, and now of course Brown plus the rest of Labour would be completely toast south of the border, rather than clinging on to the door-jambs by his fingernails.
Incidentally, Bliar was of course educated at Fettes - Scotland's Eton. Would you mind taking him back, too?
But we certainly agree about at least two things: we both want Scottish independence (if you want it, as you apparently do), and I will defo join you in storming the bunker (and reclaiming it for England and St George).
Oli, "was occasioned and facilitated only by Scotland's membership of the British Empire" . Much as I hate the EU, I must admit I think that statement is a bit rich. The Irish were Economic Migrants long before the Eu was joined or even thought of. My friend is 2nd generation, his father having come over here 50 years ago but you're right in one thing they have this pish idea of the 'land across the sea' as being the place they visit on a bevvy party with some of their Celtic mates once ever two years.
DieKaisers-I wouldn't disagree with your slant on history. If England is so keen to let us go why do they hang on so hard. A friend who was a high powered Civil Servant once told me the reasons. They were oil, whisky, land, water forestry, re-newables and there was another which I can't remember at the moment. I sussed BTW that you were a Nat. You make it sound like you are coming out as gay! I didnae really think you were German. ;-)
Anonymous, you are unfortunately typical of many English who come on to Scottish blogs talking out a hole in your big fat English arsehole. Allow me to avail you of a few facts. The British economy has been afloat on Scottish oil since the late 60s. It was Scottish oil that funded Thatcher's 'economic' miracle. It still finances the British Economy, so don't give me any of your pish. RBS and BOS are and were British companies and as such have been paying tax to the British treasury since their were founded, de facto since 1707. The Scottish Labour vote made fuck all difference to the fact that we have had 3 Labour Governments since 1997, you are talking shite. I did a blog post on it last month if you want to check. You are correct in saying that indeed Blair is Scottish, a fact he tries to hide at every opportunity. However does it not say something about England when the PMs have been Scottish for 13 years? Oh and are you aware of the fact that you will have to give us a share of all the National Treasures when we go. What do you think 8.4% of the exhibits in London Museums will come to? I don't know but it will be a right few bob. How much is Downing Street worth. Bought after 1707 and paid for with a share of Scottish money. There will be more than enough, I suppose to easily wipe out our share of Labour's national debt. I think a comparison with Norway which has a much higher spend on the state sector than Scotland has and has still managed to put almost 400 £billion in a contingency fund paid for by oil, might make a good comparison on how to run a country properly and still be able to pay your OAPs enough money so they don't die of the cold in the winter. You are welcome on this blog anytime, but next time make up a name so we know who it is and try and get your facts right. BTW, independence for England, I'm yir man!
Are you on the morphine , DL ?
I never mentioned the EU !
As for "Scotland's throne was not inherited! It merged with the English Throne by the Act of the Union" , you're having a laugh , mate !
In 1707 the Queen of Scotland and the Queen of England were the same person , Queen Anne . Every Scottish and English King or Queen had been the same person since 1603 when King James VI inherited the vacant throne of England . That is the sole reason we joined together politically , an arrangement formalised by the Treaty of Union .
Any attempt to deny this verges on the sophistic .
Talking of which - "occupied country"? Again , you're auditioning for a new series of Chewin' The Fat .
The old Frenchies and Belgians found out a thing or two about being an occupied country , but thankfully for them your evil British oppressor-state came to the rescue . Perhaps you could ask them what occupation is actually like ?
Glad the old operation hasn't impaired your sense of humour .
As you're doped up with whatever , I might as well join you and tan the cans of Spesh that have been sitting in the fridge since New Year . Please disregard any other posts I might put up whilst thus intoxicated .
Oli, sorry I read your post completely wrongly. If only morphine was the excuse. I think I am just out blogged/twittered/facebooked and in election overload. Anyway you did the same thing. I did not mention anything about the Scottish throne not being inherited, it was DieKaiser. I might get a can of beer in my face also once this stomach of mine's comes off the liquid diet the Surgeon has put me on. (It doesn't include bevvy unfortunately)
Hello DL,
Actually, I think you have a good point about the oil. You are overstating the importance of the revenues to Britain as whole. But nevertheless, most of it belonged to Scotland, and that part of the revenues should not have been spent at all, without the consent of the Scots - it should have been kept and invested for the benefit of the Scottish people, as has been done in Norway. Because the population of Scotland is comparatively small, that would have made a big difference to the people of Scotland.
My big problem with governments of all persuasions, but particularly Labour ones, is that they overspend in the pursuit of short term political advantage. They should be saving for the future, not borrowing.
However, we are where we are - and it is fairly clear that Scotland would be economically a lot worse off independent, with or without the oil revenues - see, for example, the CPPR report in published in Feb this year reported at http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article7044017.ece ("Independent Scotland would face debt disaster"). But, let me be clear, if that is what the majority of Scots want, they should certainly have it, come what may. Self-determination is the key and I suspect that the Scots and English would get on a lot better if not yoked together. I imagine that most SNP supporters would much prefer to have the freedom to make their own choices, even if they don't turn out well.
As to the British Museum etc - you are welcome to take your share, as long as England gets its appropriate share of the collections in Scottish museums, and also repayment (with interest) for its contributions to lavish public buildings such as the new Scottish Parliament.
Also, you will need to take your share of the huge debts run up by the last two Scottish prime ministers. You will no doubt remember that under Thatcher and Major, public debt had been controlled and was in fact falling.
Can't agree with you about the effect of Scottish labour MPs, I'm afraid. Without the Scots, we would now have a clear majority Conservative government in England, and would be well on our way to putting the country back into order - rather than facing a sovereign debt crisis. Virtually all of the map south of the border has turned blue.
It is also the case that Scottish MPs have repeatedly helped to vote through very unpopular measures in England which have not been imposed on the Scots, in the face of opposition from the majority of English MPs - university tuition fees being the most obvious example.
Nor can I agree with you about RBS or BOS, I'm afraid. The clue is in the names: "Royal Bank of SCOTLAND", "Bank of SCOTLAND". Both of these organisations were headquartered in Scotland, and run - disastrously - by Scots. I think that, in fairness, the Scots need to pick up the tabs for these ones.
As I have said: I hope you win your referendum. Even if you don't, I think that England should have one of its own, so that the English can decide if they want to continue to be stuck with the Scots. An opinion poll taken last year indicated that 58% of the English would vote for separation, if given the chance.
Ooooh ! The hangover !
Doing in the dozen cans and then going on to the whisky was a bad mistake !
Anyway , sorry for getting you mixed up with Die Kaiser , DL .
I can only blame it on withdrawal symptoms from the great taste of Tennant's Special .
Time for a curer in the pub !
BTW - Prospero's blog shows a great sense of humour and imagination .
Perhaps he is Alistair Campbell in disguise , following his previous career as a writer of improbable muck in tod mags ?
Young Oligarch
You are confusing the assession to both Thrones with Union of the Thrones.
James VI was King of the Kingdom of Scotland and the Kingdom of England, as were subsequent Monarchs until 1707 when the Thrones were united to create the United Kingdom of Great Britain.
The Union of the Thrones were enshrined into Law under the Act of the Union 1707 - take time to Google and read it for yourself!
Prospero
RBS and HBOS were run by a Chief Executive representing the Board who in turn represents shareholders allover the World, most incidently based in London and New York!
If anyone should take the hit, it should be the shareholders, not Scottish public - learn a little about how Public Limited Companies (PLC) work before you incite such nonsense, you feckin Numpty!
Prospero
More to add, the Scottish parliament is the largest single investment in Scotland for 30 years, and cost £400 Million. In the same period, there have been Trillions spent within the Burghs of England for large projects, so your argument is severly unbalanced!
A for Oil, the McCrone Report, which was swept under the carpet for decades by Westminster, gives a better reflection to the revenues available to Scotland for Oil exploitation. Additionally, Scottish prospectors have located new fields that will keep the Oil flowing for another 50 years! :p
You quote Thatcher, well, she destroyed the primary incomes for Scotland, Wales and the North East of England by changing the Economic climate in the UK to concentrate on the Tertiary Sector, whilst ignoring the macroeconomic needs for Regions! Thatcher created the situation that the UK is in at this time, regards the Economic issues, try running commonsense figures and apply to the curent situation, and add the effects, then you will understand!
As for voting through issues in the UK, the SNP have NEVER voted on any issues regarding England alone since their first MSPs entered the Scottish Parliament. Labour, Lib Dem, Conservatives MPs in Scotland, however, have! Also, what difference would 6-7 MPs have in voting aye or nae, regards UK matters when Labour have held such a majority that the SNP votes would be negated?
Now before you counter with "we give Scotland all our money" bullshit - the Act of the Union clearly states that Scotland were to pay 5% more revenues to the state than England! This lasted for Centuries, so shut the f@ck up with your racist moaning!
Prospero, hi and welcome. you make an interesting if largely eronious contribution to the argument. I see DieKaiser has answered some of your points further down so I won't duplicate what he says. However his racist overtones are a bit out of order and he shall be chided. Anyway, as you rightly say it should be ours to choose what to do with.
As to whether we would be better off we can both bandy studies and to be fair it depends what particular political slant was behind the, Fair to say we won't come back and ask to get back into the Union.
Of course our share of the wealth sitting in Union coffers in England would have to be balanced against what we have in Scotland but as regards buildings, I'll think you'll find the cost of Portcullis House, The V&A, the Potrait Gallery, Greenwich and the British museam will cover it! The last three Labour governments would have still have been in power regardless of the Scottish vote. Check out a blogpost I did last month about it. I'll think you'll find that if your man Dave had offered UKIP a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and they in turn as promised had not fielded any candidates, he would have had another 21 MPs under his belt.
The banks have been paying BRITISH TAXES since 1707 and have undoubtedly paid in more than they had out, so they are British not Scottish. After all we own 8.4% of the Bank of England.
In some ways I'll be sad to see the end of the Union because we have been good for each other for some time, but I'm afraid when the problems become too much then divorce is the only option. But I hope we can still remain friends for the sake of the children and maybe we could have a meal now and again?
Oli, going onto whisky is always a bad idea after the beer. Much better to combine them in the first place then they know what the relationship is. Aye, Prospero makes a good contribution. It's good sometimes to hear the views of a real englishman instead of you kiddy on ones in Scotland. ;-)
DieKaisers, not a lot I can add to what you say although I didn't think that Prospero was being racist. It's good sometimes to hear the English side of the argument and the way you answered it is the way I would also counter it by reasoned argument, it usually wins in the end!
Wise words on the drink front , DL .
More to the point , how come most folk drink foreign beer and spirits (lager and vodka) instead of good Scotch Drink ? And why is their popularity directly proportional to the rise in SNP support ?
"kiddy-on English"? Aye . Right .
DieKaiser -
The Union of the Crowns was in 1603 , the Union of the Parliaments 1707 .
It's not difficult - unlike any tortuous attempts to prove Scotland was conquered by the evil English oppressors .
Like DL says , Britain has been good for Scotland . Some of us think it isn't any longer and vote SNP ; others aren't ready to give up on it yet .
When the whole of the SNP starts talking like that , rather than like Christine Grahame on her bad week , then we can all start having a reasonable debate about it .
Young Oligarch
The English Crown was inherited by James the VI in 1603, and was not united until both the Throne and Parliament of Scotland united in 1707, by Acts of the Union!
You are confusing Union with Assession:
- Assession is when a Monarch 'ascends' to the status of King or Queen
- Union is the Formal Act of State that Unites 2 Kingdoms to form 1 Kingdom, as happened to the United Kingdom, another example was in 1886 when Germany was formed after the merger of 53 Kingdoms and Empires within the North German States, to form the German Federation; and the 2nd Union to include all German States gained from defeated the Holy Roman Empire, during the 30 War of Germans, to create the Confederation of Germans.
James the VI, caused a 100 year Constitutional crisis in Scotland, as he both accepted Assession to the Throne of England, and effectively abandoned the Throne of Scotland! This crisis divided Scotland, and was only remedied in 1707, after the Acts of the Union were passed as Law.
Oli, I enjoy a pint of heavy like any good Scot but I must admit although I drunk Whisky when I was younger, I grue at it now. Kiddy on English, you know the type I mean, the Rangers suppoerters who wear England tops and the Celtic ones who wear Irish ones!
DieKaiser, I knew it would be those Royal Bastards fault!
You're right , DieKaiser , James VI should have consulted Alec Salmond before he embarked on his hair-brained schemes .
Pure sophistry !
Get a grip , man !
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